COVID 19-Secondary Effects

When there is a health "scare" in addition to the physical and emotional responses within a population, there are significant short term and long term economic and societal changes which are not often factored by most metrics.   This week I will outline the main adverse and positive (yes, there are some positive consequences from this bio weapon) second order consequences from the now, world wide spread of COVID 19 aka the "Corona virus" and the "Wuhan virus".

The data circulating this week regarding the number of infections/number of deaths and the assumed number of recovered patients can be viewed on this site:
https://qz.com/1814380/interactive-map-from-johns-hopkins-shows-coronavirus-in-real-time/
The reported number of cases is slowly decreasing although the locations where people are infected is increasing.  In fact, the number of people who have had the virus and recovered is also increasing worldwide yet the numbers have not been reported by most mainstream media...why?     www.newsweek.com/coronavirus-update-50000-recoveries-global-cases-1490495   

The supplies sought during the peak of this viral illness, or in preparation for possible quarantine and resources/routes cut off for public consumption-means there have been surges in demand beyond any previous forecasting.  However the rapid spread of COVID 19 is also exposing the lack of supply chain for medicines and materials.  Essential materials, medicines, chemicals which were once produced/manufactured in the USA, twenty years ago, have been cumulatively outsourced to China over the past twelve years.    This means the USA and most of the world is dependent on China for successful operation of their health care systems.  www.wsj.com/articles/coronavirus-slows-drug-production-in-china-the-worlds-pharmacy-11582900885

"Mike Bower, executive vice president of Texas-based Prestige Ameritech, one of the few manufacturers of respirators and surgical face masks in the United States, stated:  "I've got requests for maybe a billion and a half masks, if you add it up. That's right — 1.5 billion. The surgical mask supply went from being 90% U.S.-made to being 95% foreign-made in literally one year, 15 years ago," Bowen says.  www.npr.org/sections/health-shots/2020/03/05/811387424/face-masks-not-enough-are-made-in-america-to-deal-with-coronavirus

Medical supplies, medicines, disinfectant and cleaning solutions, non-perishable foods, bio- hazard protective clothing, waste disposal services, supplements and alternative energy source units, weapons, ammunition as well as fuel are now in short supply in most major cities on the planet.   
Not letting a "good crisis go to waste" or the opportunity to profit from pandemonium,  New York Governor Andrew Cuomo approved contracts for prison inmate labor to be used to produce "75% alcohol hand sanitizer"-superior to other products.  www.breitbart.com/politics/2020/03/09/new-york-using-prison-labor-to-make-superior-hand-sanitizer/?utm_medium=social&utm_source=facebook

​There are others who are capitalizing on the shortages, swiftly "converting" their factories to produce supplies such as this garment factory in Mosul, Iraq.  Yes, that's right the same place that Daesh/ISIS conquered not so long ago as the capital of their caliphate.  Ever wonder how former residents of the Islamic caliphate in Iraq are now gainfully employed?  See the video linked below. They inadvertently advertise their lack of sanitary conditions in this video.  (Notice no gloves, few wear masks, no evidence of sinks, running water, soap, disinfectant used-which is the norm in this area of the world unfortunately)  www.youtube.com/watch?v=f4e0JTh1UwY

Iran's military announced to the world media it is making it's own COVID 19 "testing kits" supposedly approved by the French Pasteur Institute:  www.youtube.com/watch?v=z301Aq3TuFk

You might well ask how the price of oil is related to the spread of the Wuhan virus and the spread of "fear/panic" is related to the world stock markets? Perception of a problem with supplies, raw materials, logistics routes, labor force and political stability all affect the stock markets.   There is no certainty in the number of people infected, the duration of this illness and the cost to all economic sectors.   Therefore the stock markets in most countries are experiencing a temporary bust or "transitional downturn" but could just as easily be rebounding within the next few months.  www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-03-08/yen-slides-as-oil-price-war-adds-to-global-worries-markets-wrap

​Moreover, countries who rely mainly on one major export (such as oil) and who have security issues regarding the protection of that export, will need to prepare for possible attacks on their most valuable resource and the instability that may result economically and therefore politically, in their countries.  smallwarsjournal.com/jrnl/art/oil-and-rentier-states-how-falling-oil-prices-will-affect-middle-east
​www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-03-09/these-five-charts-show-how-opec-breakup-is-roiling-oil-markets
​
This is all inter-related to the holistic concept of the "health" of our planet.  Everything and everyone is now connected/related when you examine the emerging meta data including demographics affected, price indices, travel restrictions, weather patterns, availability of raw materials, differing policy/government responses, immigration/emigration patterns, animal hygiene, permission to inhabit public spaces, censorship or freedom of information regarding the responses of a particular community or nation to the "attacks" of the Corona virus in their juridiction.

​It is important to consider what the positive effects are and could be from this global bio-weaponized virus.​

• Manufacturing of essential medicines, goods and services is re-directed to the USA and stimulated within other countries as a viable long term goal
• Lower oil prices means a shift in consumer prices and savings on gasoline and petroleum products
• The political leverage OPEC and specifically Saudi Arabia, have on the global economy may be disbursed/diminished since Russia is not cooperating at present with quotas set
• ​Boosting energy efficient alternatives within the USA and in other countries
• A Federal Reserve correction that is more in line with what the US economy requires and the "bubbles" of markets correct to a more realistic level
• Political pressure for less reliance on China may push through legislation protecting intellectual property as well as American businesses and trade agreements​
• Historically, falling oil prices boost the global economy overall
• Cooperation between countries increases in sectors such as medical research, immigration control, standards for hygiene and strategies for containment
• Public sector attention to basic sanitation such as using soap and frequently washing hands, washing clothes, minimizing physical contact, etc. is in focus due to the internet and public pronouncements, advertising and awareness out of "fear of infection"  is now at a scale hitherto unseen and not yet accurately analyzed.  In countries such as Iraq, Afghanistan, India and China this could change unhealthy habits for better health for their populations in the long run.   ​​

The next few weeks should tell us much more about the parameters of this "virus" and the next few months will provide us with a northern and southern hemisphere report of how this virus responds to weather (if at all) and treatments tried in a number of different countries.  

Already Israel, arguably the most advanced country in the world for medical research and strict standards for research, has announced a possible vaccine and other countries will be watching for their results, regardless of their political/theological foundations. 
 www.clinicaltrialsarena.com/analysis/coronavirus-mers-cov-drugs/

There are a number of useful sites for collaboration on treatment and issues for health practitioners.  Here is one citing the best known/credible links:  blog.capterra.com/9-doctor-social-networking-sites-every-physician-should-know-about/ 

As always, be discerning, triangulate your sources of information at a minimum and verify any mainstream or 'pop-news' *(my own vocabulary) with actual medical, economic data and research.   

Stay healthy, stay alert to possible changes in your workplace, in movement restrictions, in your community and in your own body/reactions.   Closing this morning with a positive song about the coming Spring in the northern hemisphere.  Everyone and everything in nature moves through cycles.  There is a divine balance, Yin/Yang...dark/light.   Don't forget this in the most challenging times ahead.

Enjoy this song by Jimmy Cliff - you might know it "I Can See Clearly Now" - music video created with images from a movie about a team preparing for the Olympics as many athletes are at this moment...around the world:  www.youtube.com/watch?v=MrHxhQPOO2c